Everything you need to know about our AI-powered value betting predictions
We gather live odds from 10 bookmakers, team stats, expected goals and confirmed lineups, every 8 hours.
Five models process 158 features per match, then the result is blended against the market price.
A prediction is published when the model's own probability beats the offered price by that market's conviction bar (1X2 1.5 pp · O/U 4 pp · AH 5.5 pp · HT/FT 1.5 pp), in every market, within odds 1.40–3.00. There is no cap: 0-10 a day depending on what the model finds.
Every day, our ranking system selects the best value bet by computing a composite score based on:
How far our probability sits from the no-vig fair price
That edge weighted by the price on offer
Shows all upcoming value bet predictions. You can sort by:
Track your personal betting performance. Star any prediction to add it to your portfolio with a stake amount.
Return on Investment based on settled bets
Wins / (Wins + Losses), excluding void
Sum of all P/L in units
Current win/loss streak
StackPlays uses an ensemble of ML models that vote together to generate probability estimates:
Gradient boosting for structured data
Fast gradient boosting with leaf-wise growth
Handles categorical features natively
Every prediction is built from a comprehensive dataset:
We analyze four major betting markets, each with independent quality gates:
Home win, draw, or away win. Our strongest market historically.
Total goals over or under lines (1.5, 2.5, 3.5).
Spread betting with half-line and quarter-line precision.
Both teams to score Yes/No.
There is no quality threshold between the model and your dashboard. The model decides; these are the only limits:
Published when the model's own probability beats the offered price by that market's conviction bar: 1X2 1.5 pp · O/U 4 pp · AH 5.5 pp · HT/FT 1.5 pp. No confidence or rank threshold, no cap on the count.
1X2 from 1.40; Asian handicap from 1.30; over/under from 1.20; up to 3.00. HT/FT has no ceiling.
Free accounts see 3 picks a day; Pro and Elite see the whole board.
The difference between our predicted probability and the implied probability from the odds. If we estimate Arsenal has a 60% chance to win but the odds imply only 52%, that's an 8% edge. We only bet when we find genuine edge.
A mathematical formula that determines optimal stake size based on edge size and odds. We use a quarter-Kelly approach (conservative) with a maximum 3% stake per bet. This prevents over-exposure on any single prediction.
The gold standard metric for prediction quality. If we recommend a bet at 2.10 odds and the line closes at 1.95, we captured CLV. Consistently beating the closing line is the #1 predictor of long-term profit in sports betting.
A bet where the true probability of an outcome is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply. It's not about picking winners — it's about finding mispriced odds. A value bet can still lose. But over hundreds of bets, the math works in your favor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. You can and will have losing streaks. Only bet with money you can afford to lose.
StackPlays provides data-driven predictions for informational purposes. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All decisions are yours.
All our predictions are tracked and publicly verifiable. Check the Statistics page for full performance data including losing periods.